DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/14 11:15
All Grains Higher at Midday
Corn is flat to 1 cent higher, soybeans are 7 to 8 cents higher, and wheat
is 2 to 6 cents higher.
David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 210 points. The dollar index
is 20 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mostly
higher with crude up $0.35. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading.
Precious metals are weaker with gold down $1.00.
Corn trade is flat to 1 cent higher at midday with trade finding support
from the decline in corn conditions as well as moving towards being oversold
after the last two days along with a record sale of 1.762 million metric tons
to China, but improved weather still weighs on action. The forecast has better
rains for many in it, but remains warm into pollination for many. The ethanol
margins have narrowed a bit but remain positive with potential OPEC production
increases on deck. Weekly crop progress showed conditions down 2% to 69% good
to excellent, with 8% poor to very poor, with 29% silking vs. 32% on average,
and 3% in the dough, same as average. Weekly export inspections were 902,623
metric tons. On the September contract, support is the lower Bollinger Band at
$3.19 after we gapped below the 20-day at $3.36 to start the week.
Soybean trade is 6 to 7 cents higher at midday with light buying surfacing
again after the washout the last two days. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 higher and
oil is 40 to 50 points higher. The ral remains at the midpoint of the recent
range vs. the dollar. Crush margins have seen little change in recent days.
Weekly crop progress showed conditions down 3% to 68% good to excellent, and 7%
poor to very poor, with blooming at 48% vs. 40% on average, and setting pods at
11% vs. 10% on average. China bought 129,000 metric tons of new crop as well.
The August chart now has resistance at the 20-day at $8.77 which we are back
above at midday, with support the lower Bollinger band at $8.52.
Wheat trade is 2 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade seeing light buying
as winter wheat harvest enters the homestretch with support from world values
as well as harvest moves forward in Europe. The ruble remains in the recent
range vs. the dollar with a focus on euro and Black Sea yields this week.
Kansas City is at a 78-cent discount to Chicago with spreads sharply wider the
last three days, while Minneapolis is back to a 6 cent discount. Weekly crop
progress had winter wheat 68% cut vs. 66% on average, with spring wheat 80%
headed vs. 85% on average, and 68% good to excellent, and 11% poor to very poor
down 1%. Kansas City chart support is the 20-day at $4.43, with the upper
Bollinger Band at $4.58 the next round up.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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